CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-08-04T04:17ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26324/-1
CME Note: First of two CMEs seen to the N and W in SOHO/STEREO A imagery in association with a long duration M1.9-class flare near the vicinity of AR13386 (N12W46) and a complex, sympathetic eruptive signature before/after the flare. This CME is directed more northward than the latter CME, appearing bulbous with a protruding leading edge and a wide/faint shock seen predominantly to the N and NE. Arrival signature: Likely an arrival of a flux rope at L1, associated with an increase of B total to over 10nT, with rotation of magnetic field components. Confirmed by the LASSOS team.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T01:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T13:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note: Lead Time: 51.67 hour(s)
Difference: -11.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-08-04T21:35Z
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